The German-Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GPCCI), with the support of SGV & Co. successfully convened its Economic Forum: "Global Ripples of a Shifting Middle East," last 23 June 2026 at the German Club Manila bringing in the insights of Ms. Marie Stephanie Tan-Hamed of SGV & Co., on the implications of the on-going conflict in the Middle East towards the global economy, and the Philippine business landscape.
Deputy Executive Director and Head of Trade Promotion of GPCCI, Ms. Charlotte Bandelow, opened the program with her welcome remarks addressing the uncertainties felt by German companies in the Philippines because of the volatile situation in the Middle East. The introduction of the forum's speaker was carried out by Ms. Katharina Bandelow, Deputy Head of the Economic Section of the German Embassy Manila.
Ms. Tan-Hamed's talk comes in two-fold: Philippine implications and the global effects of the conflict. The Philippines began 2026 on steady footing, helped by a February rate cut, and strong manufacturing activity. That picture changed once conflict broke out in the Middle East, raising commodity prices, pushing inflation higher, and thus weakening the peso. In response, the BSP tightened policy, while the government invoked a national energy emergency through the UPLIFT package, addressing energy concerns and protecting vulnerable sectors without disrupting infrastructure spending.
On the global front, Ms. Tan-Hamed highlighted the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route whose disruptions have driven up oil and fertilizer prices, affecting markets and supply chains worldwide. SGV presented four possible scenarios: a prolonged conflict that keeps the Strait effectively closed; continued disruptions despite a pause in US attacks; the resumption of transit with additional tolls; and, in the most optimistic case, a lasting resolution that restores stability in the Middle East and fully reopens the Strait.
In concluding her presentation, Ms. Tan-Hamed emphasized that preparedness and adaptability will be critical for businesses and economies to navigate uncertainty and respond to global challenges. Despite geopolitical risks, she noted that many companies remain focused on strengthening resilience and pursuing their long-term strategies, while the Philippines continues to demonstrate strong growth potential supported by infrastructure development, structural reforms, and trade partnerships.
We extend our sincere appreciation to the audience for their thoughtful questions and active participation, which enriched the discussion. We also gratefully acknowledge the support and presence of our members and partners in making this forum a meaningful exchange of insights on the evolving global landscape.
